E-Commerce Leaders: Is Your Decision Making in A Swarm? Take 5 Lessons from the Honeybees
Photo courtesy of bees-on-the-net.com
When I'm as busy as I've been this year, there are two things that I miss the most: 1) reading and 2) writing. There just doesn't seem to be time enough to do either one, at least not particularly well. Fortunately, there are vacations, and my longstanding rule for vacations is that I get to read (and eat) whatever I want. Fortunately that rule usually means that I wind up with some great stuff to write about, fueled by my long overdue reading.
This year's unexpected source of inspiration is Honeybee Democracy by Thomas D. Seeley, a book which took my appreciation for honeybees and their approach to both marketing and corporate decision making to an unprecedented level. I've written previously about honeybee behavior and the parallel to social networking in the ways that honeybees find and communicate their favorite food sources (see previous post). The Honeybee Democracy focuses on a much more complex and interesting aspect of honeybee survival; how honeybees make decisions on where to live, and how they execute on those decisions once a suitable hive site has been agreed to.
I found this topic particularly fascinating, as in the last year I have heard and witnessed from my e-commerce clients that internal decision making is harder than ever and getting harder still. Even though there's no lack of enthusiasm for the online channel, budgets are being scrutinized like never before. The consumer's migration to the web and all things digital has put e-commerce leaders in the hot seat, with more stakeholders in the company wanting a say in the strategy. New channels and access points (like mobile) are disruptive, creating new work streams and considerations in online marketing and site development. Thus, decisions involve more people, take longer, and carry more weight.
We've all seen the common pitfalls of corporate decisions making:
Ambiguity about who makes the decision; over-emphasis on building consensus & unanimity
Heavy handed influence by the leader or person in the highest level position
Dominance of one overly-vocal team member (sometimes inexperienced) who wants it "their way"
Inadequate time to explore viable options; pressure to decide without the confidence of due diligence
Poor communication & execution once a decision is made; getting everyone moving in the same direction
Fortunately, we need to look no further than our closest honeybee hive to find intelligent, practical approaches to all of the above.
To understand how the bees tackle these tough issues, you need know a little bit about bee behavior when it comes to propagating and house hunting (the author does a much more thorough job that I'll do here).
To keep the honeybee population alive and growing, new hives need to be formed. So, as an existing honeybee hive becomes crowded, about half of the bees in the hive, along with their precious queen bulk up on honey and leave the hive in search of a new one. The homeless bees find a place to 'hang' (literally) for a few days while they search for a new hive site. The picture of the swarm above shows what this hanging out looks like. 15,000 or so bees all huddled together, protecting their queen, badly in need of shelter. So, how to find a new hive site, how to decide which hive site is best, and equally critical, how to get 15,000 bees, plus the queen to a new site efficiently is the order of the day.
A relatively small number of the older and more experienced worker bees in the hive "volunteer" to become scouts. As a scout, a bee must fly (sometimes great distances) to evaluate a potential hive site and fly back to the hanging swarm to report on her findings. She tells the group about her find by "waggle dancing" on the backs of her fellow bees. The duration and strength of the dance indicates her enthusiasm for the hive site she has found. The movements in her dance indicate the distance and direction of the potential site. Her fellow scout bees do the same, each returning back to the hive with a potential new home site, varying in their dance steps based on the quality of the find. (In case you were wondering, bees look for a lot of the same things we do in a new house: secure entrance, warmth, spaciousness).
So, how do the bees ultimately "decide" the best hive site? When a scout bee dances for the site she has found, depending on the strength of her dance, other scout bees will go check it out for themselves. They come back to the swarm and either dance (to confirm the original scout's judgment) or refrain. The more scouts that ultimately visit and validate the suggested site, the more likely the site will "win" and become the hive site of choice for the swarm. As enthusiasm for one site builds, enthusiasm for other suggested sites dies out, and ultimately, the bees make their choice, buzzing in unison that it's time to take flight. Since a majority of the 15,000 plus bees, including the queen have never been to the winning site, leader scouts fly above the swarm, guiding the way, assuring everyone arrives quickly and safely to begin 'moving in' to the new place. In this process, the bees become, in a sense, a collective decision making body with the interest of survival as their sole focus.
How does all of this apply to corporate culture and decision making? There are many things that we can learn from the honeybees, and Seeley dedicates a late chapter in his book to how he has applied many of the bees' techniques in running the academic department at his university. Here are the 5 big insights that got me buzzing:
Bees don't need a leader to make a critical decision. It's a common misconception that the queen bee is the leader of the hive. She's not. In fact, she doesn't rule or make any decisions at all. She's just there to fill her essential role in reproduction, and thus, she is pampered and watched over by the other bees. But don't look to her for strategic guidance or vision. The bees don't have a leader. What they do have is a unifying goal: to stay alive. If you're leading an e-commerce team, remember this. It may not always be your job to make the decision or even heavily influence the decision. It may instead be more important and helpful if you clarify the goal and unite the team around it, and then let them reach the right decision.
Bees rely on their most experienced team members to surface options and perform due diligence. Hive site selection can be a life or death decision. This isn't the place to let your newborns test their wings. Send your strongest, smartest and most seasoned to do the information gathering. They know what to look for and what questions to ask.
When a scout bee finds a good hive site, she dances about it to tell the others, then promptly shuts up and lets the other scouts make up their minds. I love this, because I (probably like you) have sat through way too many decision making meetings where one influential and vocal person runs at the mouth, making it hard or impossible for alternative options to be discussed. It's great to be passionate about your idea, but it's even better to make your pitch and let a trusted group of colleagues do the necessary research to get on board or raise concerns. This approach can prevent costly mistakes and assure that those that are on board are there because they have validated the quality of the decision.
Bees balance speed with discipline. Time is critical. Bees can only hang there for so long without a home. Then again, making the right choice for a hive site is critical too. The house hunting process is a remarkable balance of speed and discipline. By deploying their most experienced workers to scout out sites, and by validating each others' work, the scouts can effectively make a decision for colony without all 15,000 bees having to weigh in. In test after test, this method allowed the bees to choose the highest quality home in a short period of time.
Once a decision is made, the bee colony acts as one. Nothing is more frustrating than going through a painstaking decision making process only to find the execution poor, the team members scattering off in multiple directions. If this poor execution were to happen to the bees (and it has happened), the bees would lose their queen, and thus their lives. Seeley cites examples in the book where two strong hive sites are found and the bees are competing and/or confused about deciding which is best. The swarm, in rare cases, divides in two, flying in two separate directions, usually causing the queen to become lost and fall out of the swarm. There are also remarkable examples of the bees successfully locating the queen, gathering around her, and "getting their act together" in terms of unifying their flight plan.
Some things you should know about Honeybee Democracy: a) if you have an interest in nature, insect science, social networks, or corporate cultures you will get value out of this book. b) If you are more interested in social networks and corporate cultures than the insect and natural sciences (as I am) you may find parts of this book a bit tedious, especially when the author describes how certain experiment were conducted or how data was gathered. That said, I'm no scientist, but I still found the info intriguing and the methodology remarkably similar to the techniques used in A/B testing on e-commerce sites. Keep in mind; I was sitting in the heavenly sun in a beach chair with a drink in my hand. Even the most banal reading can be easy to take under those circumstances. c) If you read this book on a Kindle (which I did) you will likely be annoyed by the number of typos; something clearly went afoul in the translation, but you'll be able to figure out the correct words ("of" and "off" get transposed constantly, as do "few" and "flew") easily enough.
If you're too busy to read (like I typically am) you might just look up the next time you're in your back yard. It's amazing what kind of business advice you might find.
An increasing number of organizations for whom we are facilitating brand positioning workshops are asking us to facilitate organization mission, vision and values workshops as well. It makes sense, especially for organizations for which the brand exists at the organizational level. For those organizations, crafting brand strategy is closely aligned with crafting organizational strategy.
It makes sense to craft organization mission, vision and values and brand essence, promise, personality and archetype in concert with one another. Here is an overview of each:
Strategy Component
Definition
Form
Mission
The organization’s reason for existing
7 to 25 words
Vision
What the organization wants to become Forward looking, aspirational, inspirational
7 to 15 words
Values
What an organization believes in and how its people should behave
5 to 10 core values in word or phrases
Brand Essence
The “heart and soul” of the brand, its timeless quality
Three words in the form “Adjective adjective noun”
Brand Promise
The one or two things the brand promises its target audiences that is/are very important to those audiences and unique to the brand
In the form, “Only [brand] delivers [one or two benefits] to [target audience]”
Brand Personality
Describing the brand as if it were a person
7 to 12 adjectives
Brand Archetype
The pattern or model that underlies the brand, especially regarding its motivations and behaviors
Choosing the brand’s primary and secondary archetypes
The Blake Project facilitate's organization mission, vision and values in one full-day workshop and brand essence, promise, personality and archetype inanother full-day workshop. Both workshops are preceded by online surveys of target audiences and key stakeholders.
Organizations that carefully decide on and craft these components are much more likely to align employees in support of organization’s mission and vision and transform them into advocates for the brand. They are also much more likely to succeed in the marketplace.
"..companies need to work to understand the essence of these changes by consumer segment, and adjust offerings accordingly. Reverting to business as usual is not an option because many of the self-reported changes in consumer behavior, even among wealthy consumers, appear to be sticky. The frugal consumer is here to stay."
BAH found spending on categories like consumer electronics and apparel and shoes to be significantly impacted.
65% of consumers stated they spent less on consumer electronics in the past 12 months and 21% expected to spend even less in the next 12.
For apparel and shoes- 55% of consumers stated they spent less over the past 12 months and 21% plan to spend even less in 2011.
The consultants suggest in their report some kind of explosion in the usage of online retail; with many consumers flocking online for the first time in many categories and others using it as a strategic tool to research their purchases.
I love to do business with small businesses—in-store, online, for myself, for others, for pleasure, for work—it doesn’t matter to me. I love to find great products and services made by entrepreneurs who are trying to change the world. And I love to help small business owners because they aren’t flying around in corporate jets and lunching with investment bankers. American Express’s idea for Small Business Saturday is a marvelous one, and I’d like to help out by them explaining 10 ways that small businesses can enchant their customers.
1. Put likable, competent and passionate people on the front line. I prefer to interact with employees who smile, know what they’re talking about, and love what they sell. However, companies often put the lowest-paid, least-experienced employees behind the counter or at the front desk and hope for the best. This doesn’t make sense. Ask yourself this question: Is the first impression of my business a good one? Because if it’s a bad one, it may also be the last one.
2. Show me that you trust me. If you don’t trust me, I’m not going to trust you. Look at the small businesses that became huge: Zappos tells me that it trusts me because it pays shipping in both directions. Nordstrom takes my word for it if I say merchandise was defective. Amazon lets me return a Kindle book for seven days—I can read most books in seven days! If you trust me, I’ll trust you, and we can build a relationship.
3. Remove barriers to entry. Make it easy to get started with your product or service. Don’t ask people to fill out 10 fields of personal information to open an account. Don’t throw up a CAPTCHA system that requires fluency in Sanskrit. Don’t require an appointment for a consultation. Instead, create a slippery slope that enables people to start doing business with you quickly.
4. Make it easy to give you money. Once people decide to adopt your product or service, make it easy for them to give you their money, attention or eyeballs. This requires accepting multiple methods of payment, adopting easy-to-use shopping carts, and reasonable shipping and handling charges. If there’s anything worse than a company that tries to get my money with a crappy product, it’s a company that makes it hard to give it my money for a great one.
5. Go deep in a segment. The Stanley Market in Hong Kong contains dozens of shops, and many of them sell a range of t-shirts, souvenirs, toys, luggage, electronics and cameras. You get the sense that these stores sell anything to make a buck. The only place that I bought something there was Tam’s Art Gallery because it sells only “chops” (a stamp or seal made from stone). Since there’s only one thing to buy at Tam’s, it’s easier to believe that this store really understands its business. My advice is that you focus on one thing whether it’s selling t-shirts (Threadless), toys (CheekyMonkey), luggage (Edwards Luggage), electronics (Fry’s), cameras (Keeble & Shuchat) or yogurt (Miyo Yogurt).?
6. Sell something that’s DICEE. This acronym defines the five qualities of great products and services: deep, intelligent, complete, empowering,and elegant. A DICEE product or service is a full-featured one (deep) that shows you understand my needs (intelligent), comes with support (complete), makes me better (empowering), and is easy to use (elegant). As you create your offerings, ask yourself if they are deep, intelligent, complete, empowering and elegant.
7. Enable hands-on trial. Assume that your customers are smart and let them decide for themselves instead of bludgeoning them into a sale. Give them the ability to try your product or service with hands-on areas or demo versions. This concept works whether you’re buying a car, sampling a dessert, trying a camera, or buying a power tool. Once you’ve got me try something, half the battle is over, and if you tell me that I have to buy something to try it, you’ve lost me.
8. Communicate with salient points. How many people truly understand what a gigabyte of storage means? A much better way to communicate the capability and capacity of your products and services is with salient points. For example, the number of songs a device can store is more illuminating than the number of gigabytes of storage capacity. You may find this harder to believe, but telling me how much weight I’ll gain by eating your food would make me eat at your restaurant more often because this salient point shows that you care about my health.
9. Deliver bad news early. Shiitake happens: products have problems, deliveries are delayed, and employees get sick. Many businesses try to minimize the effect of bad news, but when the inevitable issue arise, be proactive and tell them about the problem before they discover the hiccup for themselves. And to get on top of your game, let them know how you’ll solve the problem at the same time that you’re letting them know it exists.
10. Consider all the influencers. There is a difference between the person who pays for something and the person who makes the decision to buy something. Many companies assume it’s the same person, but that’s not necessarily the case. Key influencers can include a spouse, sibling, colleague, parent, grandparent or child. Who is the true head of a household isn’t so clear these days, so appeal to all the influencers. In my case, it’s my daughter, by the way.
The single most powerful way to enchant me is a “yes” attitude, and this attitude encompasses all 10 points. It means that you believe that the customer is right and reasonable until proven wrong and unreasonable. Custom order? No problem. Early delivery? No problem. Return for full credit? No problem.
The math might show that if you did this for everyone, you’d go broke, but not everyone will ask for such treatment. In fact, very few will, and those that do will become your greatest evangelists, so they’re worth the exception.
If you’re a small business owner, may this Saturday be the best Saturday of the year for you. If you’re a consumer, go out and spend a few bucks at a local small business for goodness sake. And if you’re in need of more ways to enchant people, I’ve got a book for you.
olleen Jones, author of Clout: The Art and Science of Influential Web Content, discusses why influential web content is critical, the three real benefits of social networking, and the biggest mistake most organizations make with regard to their web content.
Peachpit: In your book, Clout: The Art and Science of Influential Web Content, you talk about futile techniques aimed at influencing users. You compare them to hard-sell methods of used-car salesmen. Can you elaborate? Why are those techniques such a problem?
Colleen Jones: I don’t know anyone who likes high-pressure sales tricks. A used car sales person embodies that manipulative approach, especially in the United States. I think that’s the road that the interactive industry is headed with online persuasion. It’s the wrong road. That kind of influence doesn’t necessarily work and, if it does work, it’s only for the short term. It doesn’t foster long term relationships. In other words, if someone feels tricked or let down by you, she isn’t going to come back to you again.
Now, some people might say that this manipulative approach to online persuasion isn’t their concern. I disagree. I think it’s a problem that everyone in the interactive industry should care about. It damages the credibility of all of us. What’s more, we’re in a time when we’re trying to do more and more online and encourage more and more people to do things digitally—to share and store a tremendous amount of their personal data. This needs to happen in order for the interactive industry to thrive and, more importantly, for users to get everything they can out of digital products and services. But, it will be hard to get users there and keep them there if they stumble across stupid tricks like a countdown timer on a sign up page, gibberish articles created to game search engines, obnoxious ads with repetitive trite messages, and so on.
Another, related problem in persuasion is I’ve heard agencies and interactive marketers promise things like mind control to their clients. Talk about overpromising and underdelivering! Mind control isn’t possible. (If it were, the American Psychological Association would have some diagnoses for it, and they don’t.) But, what’s more disturbing is hearing people talk about mind control or manipulation as a goal. That’s not the goal at all.
The goal is helping people make good decisions and then act on those decisions. The goal is matching a business, product, or idea with users who are interested in and can benefit from it, then act on it. The goal is being a trusted advisor to users, not controllers of users’ minds.
Peachpit: So, why do you think the interactive industry keeps going down that road? What do you think the cause is?
Colleen: Well, it’s a combination of reasons, and I discuss them in more depth in Clout. One of the biggest is focusing too much on form, or design, and not enough on substance, or content. Manipulation happens when you focus too much on form and not enough on substance. One big problem I try to solve in my book is how to address substance. A lot of discussion about writing and content for the web focuses on structure, such as chunking and using tables and bulleted lists. That’s very important, but that content needs to have meaning. It needs to resonate and connect with people. You can have gibberish in some lovely bulleted lists.
Think about the people who have influenced you most—whether in business or just personally. They probably weren’t pushy or repetitive. They probably spoke and acted in ways that were easy for you to understand yet thought-provoking, memorable, and possibly motivating. They likely had a lot of credibility with you because of their experience or accomplishments or comments they’ve made in the past. You probably liked them because you identified with them in some way, whether their personality or their values or something else. By the time such people asked you to consider a different viewpoint or to take an action, it probably felt pretty organic, like a natural evolution, not pushy. That’s how our web content needs to influence.
Peachpit: How can someone start to take steps to make their online content more influential?
Colleen: First, you really need to think about context. Now, a lot of people are talking about context in terms of mobile and location. But, context is bigger than that, and we should always be thinking about it. Context is the result you want within the reality of your brand, users, forums/channels (such as mobile), and timing. Then, within that context, you need to influence what your users think and what they do. I break that down into three phases of influence. You need content to raise awareness with your users,become liked and trusted by your users, and then motivate and help your users act.
To figure out what content you need in each phase, principles from rhetoric and psychology help a lot. In the book, I talk about eight principles in detail and show many examples. Rhetoric, in particular, is a lost art that the interactive industry has largely ignored but desperately needs.
Peachpit: In your Voices that Matter interview, you said content should influence attitude and action. What’s an example of a website that does a good job of that?
Colleen: I include tons of examples and case studies in the book, so it’s hard to pick one. I’d have to say a favorite is Mint.com for three main reasons.
It’s genuinely useful. The result Mint.com aims for—getting finances under control—is a win-win for the service and for users.
It uses metaphor well. Mint taps into the metaphor of transformation, or starting fresh. That’s powerful in a time when many people are grappling with the consequences of past financial decisions.
It influences users’ decisions by combining the right content and data. Mint offers media content, marketing content, social content, and the user’s personal financial data in one experience—and does it well. Our websites are increasingly becoming mashups like that. And, the product suggestions, because they’re so relevant, demonstrate an alternative to terrible, annoying web ads.
Peachpit: What’s the biggest mistake most organizations make with regard to their web content?
Colleen: They refuse to invest in content in favor of overpromised technology features, broadcast marketing techniques, or visual design. Their second biggest mistake is evaluating content wrong (or not at all) by not connecting it to results. For that reason, I spend a lot of time in the book talking about evaluation.
Peachpit: Many companies are using Twitter and Facebook as a way to communicate with their customers. Do you have any words of advice regarding how (or how not to) use these social media outlets?
Colleen: The most important advice I have is to understand the three real benefits of social networking.
It provides another gateway into your web content besides search. People on social networks “curate,” or share content they like with their network. If your customer shares some of your content with other people, that’s a powerful endorsement.
It allows your organization to develop personality through social media personas, such as @sharpiesusan for Newell Rubbermaid, so that users identify with you better.
It enhances relationships with users by sharing content and comments. Reciprocating content and comments keeps a relationship going for the long term.
All of these benefits suggest a tight integration with your core web content. The biggest mistake most organizations make is to treat social media or social networking as an effort entirely separate from their web content.
Peachpit: Can you share an example of how improving their web content really helped an organization that you’ve worked with?
Colleen: One of my favorite examples is the strategy I developed for an online retailer. I like it because it brought benefits before making any changes to their web presence. The CEO and CMO had a vision for their niche brand to be the “ultimate outfitter” of comfortable but stylish footwear. If you think about an outfitter, such as going to an REI store, a customer expects—and usually gets—instant expert advice. To advise their customers like expert guides, this retailer recognized that content was critical. It was really the only way to accomplish that goal.
So, after some analysis and research, my team planned a strategy for a variety of content to support the decisions users needed to make. We also planned how social, media (blog), and core product content would work together. Then, we planned how to realistically create that kind of content with a mix of in-house and freelance content personnel. That vision and process of planning helped the retailer prioritize supporting technology projects, too.
In the book, I also share examples from Cingular Wireless, IHG, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and more.
Peachpit: As content strategy filters up to management as a valuable facet of a successful Web presence, are company’s hiring “content strategists,” or is this work being assigned internally? If it’s being allocated to existing personnel, how can they quickly develop the necessary skills?
Colleen:Yes, companies are hiring content strategists like crazy—in house, freelance, or as part of a larger agency or consultancy engagement. You name it, companies are hiring it because they need it badly.
Content strategy is more than a set of skills. It’s a mindset and a process. I would advise anyone interested to focus on that first, then worry about the skills. Skills, tools, and tips constantly change and are hard to use properly without understanding the mindset and process first.
Peachpit: What future developments do you foresee for the field of content strategy?
Colleen: I see lots and lots of opportunities for content strategy that, in turn, will inform its developments. I think we’re in a very exciting time of figuring out what the right content is for the right users at the right time.
For websites, content strategy is going to make tremendous strides in how to best combine lots of different content into an experience, as Mint.com does. Also, I think all organizations benefit from positioning themselves as trusted advisors to their users or customers. The best way to do that is through content.
Content strategy will be at the nexus of marketing, media, public relations, customer service, and technical communication. Why? Because we need all of that content—at the right time, not all at once—to influence what people think and then support what they do.
Peachpit: Can you recommend some additional resources for people who want to learn more about content strategy?
Colleen: I help curate the Content Strategy knol (Google unit of knowledge), which is an awesome index of intellectual property in the field. I also recently guest edited a series for Johnny Holland called Content Strategy Week, which covers everything from the content lifecycle to maintaining quality when many people are contributing content.
With all the recent free shipping announcements from industry heavy weights such as Wal-Mart, Neiman-Marcus, L.L.Bean and Saks Direct, among others, today’s holiday blog topic couldn’t be anything but free shipping. If you perused the eHoliday 2010 pre-holiday consumer and retailer survey results (conducted in late September / early October in partnership with BIGresearch), you probably weren’t caught entirely by surprise by some of these developments, of course.
Online consumers have signaled that free shipping offers – both outbound and return – are a big draw:
More than 4 out of 5 shoppers said they would most like to use free shipping with no conditions for their online holiday purchases.
On a scale of 1 (not important at all) to 5 (very important), consumers ranked free return shipping offers specifically a 4.3. That’s ahead of other things such as promotions in general (4.2), the ability to see product reviews from other customers (4.1), and clearance sale pages (4.0). (NB — 3 out of 10 women would like to receive free return shipping offers.)
Turns out retailers have been pondering their holiday free shipping strategy for some time:
Almost a third of retailers surveyed noted that they were likely to start their free shipping offers earlier in the season than last year.
When asked which three promotions they planned to most heavily emphasize this holiday season, over half indicated free shipping with conditions, while one fifth promised free shipping without conditions.
Furthermore, over a third budgeted somewhat or significantly more for free shipping offers this year than last (just over half indicated they are keeping this budget item in line with last year).
Clearly, the free shipping debate is far from over. You’ll always keep an eye on what your competitors are offering, but most important is to make sure you’re offering your customers what truly resonates with them. So, just as you do for other parts of your business, test a variety of shipping offers and see how your customers respond. For example, while free shipping is certainly nice, I was pretty happy with the $2.95 flat shipping fee I paid yesterday for my Bluefly order. And depending on what I’m buying, free return shipping could actually be more important to me than outbound free shipping.
November 12th, 2010 by Fiona Swerdlow, Head of Research, Shop.org
Posted in @Shop.org | Holidays | Research
Every year before the holiday season, we explore with consumers what really matters most to them when choosing to do business with a given online retailer. While the bulk of development and site features for holiday are now firmly in place, there are a number of things that consumers look for on retail sites that can certainly still be woven into messages in email, the home page, social media outlets, and so forth.
In this vein, last month we asked consumers to rank the importance of a number of site features (5 was “very important”, 1 was “not important at all”). (Shop.org members can download the full results of the2010 eHoliday pre-holiday consumer survey, conducted with partner BIGresearch.) Top ranked features that emerged:
Seeing the final shopping cart total prior to check out: 4.7. Clearly this is not the time for any pricing surprises as customers head into the check out process. If you don’t already offer this functionality as part of your cart, add clear links to shipping cost info throughout the site, including product detail and check out pages.
Clear product descriptions: 4.6. It’s likely not too late to give these a last once-over. Have you “sanity-checked” the descriptions with friends or family members who aren’t involved in your business every day the way you are? What do the product reviews for an item tell you to emphasize or clarify in the description? Have you tapped experienced store associates for each category to make sure your copy editors haven’t inadvertently left out pertinent details?
Value for money: 4.5. As experienced retailers know, this doesn’t automatically mean sale prices – this simply means that customers want to know they’re getting the best and right product for that price. Is the toy made with BPA-free plastic? Is that cashmere from an Italian mill? Is the book a rare edition or signed by the author?
Product available to ship immediately: 4.5.I know, should be obvious. Still, consumers want to be reassured. Manage their expectations up front on the product page about availability (I like the color-coded chart that Boden USA uses when ordering a given size and color combination for a product). As a last resort, don’t show the item at all until you do have stock again.
Guaranteed on time delivery: 4.4. Again, hardly a surprise, so I’m guessing (hoping!) a lot of retailers recently have been having heart to hearts with their fulfillment teams and shipping partners. If you’re confident about your ability to deliver when you say you will, turn that into a selling point: tell customers that it really is “guaranteed” and how you will stand behind that assertion.
As always, I welcome your thoughts and ideas on our research.
This article looks beyond today’s innovations to focus on big changes in shopping over the next 5 to 10 years and is the companion piece to “Today’s Top 10 Shopping Innovations.”
The lines between online and offline shopping will continue to disappear as we move closer to 2020. There will be many transformations: tagging things you like on the street, on shows you watch and items in ads you see. This will streamline much of how we shop; getting shoppers to physical stores that carry things they like, telling stores more about what their target consumers want, and allowing each shopper to emerge in virtual shopping experiences.
Join the transformation in how we shop by 2020, and bring your own thoughts and links to the table at the end.
The Last 10 Years, Since 2000
Think back over the last 10 years, what are the key changes that have already happened? Remember that since 2000:
Graph shows US data for change in Internet use by age over last 10 years (image source: Pew Research Center)
Internet use exploded across the world
Big box retail continued to dominate much of the shopping growth
Thousands of new businesses were born based on the Internet, mobile and other digital platforms
Targeted digital advertising became mainstream
Laptops replaced desktops
Mobile phone use exploded
Texting was introduced and embraced
Online privacy concerns have taken a backseat where services, social community and convenience is provided.
The Next 10 Years, Themes That Transcend Shopping
As we jump into shopping in 2020, there are a few big themes impacting life and shopping that need to be kept in mind. A few of these worldwide trends are highlighted here, but each has a mountain of implications for the way we live and how our cultures evolve.
3.6x more Internet users by 2020
Populations continue to grow from 6.8 Billion in 2010 to around 7.6 Billion by 2020
People continue to move to cities and form many more megacities in Asia and around the globe
Languages such as Mandarin, Hindi, and Spanish continue to disperse far from traditional geographic boundaries
Baby boomers’ impact on world societies, especially in healthcare, will be in full swing and doctors will be in short supply
10 – 15% of the population will live in poverty
Environmental factors start to take a more dramatic toll, starting with fresh water crisis, food shortages and fossil fuel shortages impacting most middle class households in some way, but causing serious concerns for the bottom 20% of the socio-economic pyramid
Technology continues to evolve, but is more focused than ever on fixing social issues, improving health, energy, food and water shortages.
14 Transformations in Shopping by 2020
1. Pounds of plastic saved each year
Pay by phone is common by 2015
Credit cards, loyalty cards, insurance cards and everything else will be enabled in your mobile device. While cash is still king, your wallet will appreciate a slimmer, plastic-free profile.
This will also bring many benefits to life like automatic checkout, as you walk out, making cashiers less necessary in many categories. This means no more checkout lines and more service personnel to make your shopping experience a pleasure. This is already happening in Japan and other counties outside the US. In the US, Visa has announced pilots in New York and California for city transportation, but it will likely move quickly into the mainstream over the next 5 years.
For Kroger, Tesco, Carrefour and other grocery retailers, this will mean making sure things are never out of stock, helping customers find things and introducing them to new foods and recipes.
At The Home Depot, Lowe’s, Kingfisher and other home improvement stores, you are likely to find more experts and other added services such as sustainability consultants, interior design advisers and organization consultants.
Metro Group, Macy’s Group, Indetex, Belle International and other retailers will deliver a mix that includes continued focus on service, access to personal shoppers and wardrobe stylists, along with ways to keep costs under control.
2. Stores and shopping get local makeover
The current “get local” trend moves well beyond food, and continues to impact big box malls and shopping centers. Around the world today, while many big box stores and large shopping malls are still being built, many more are falling empty and dying.
This is finally starting to cause a pause among developers, but a total rethink by 2020 will have happened and many properties will open over the next ten years that will bring shopping closer to home. The corner store clusters or main street mixed use districts that promote walking and socializing will draw from our past to rethink the architecture, public spaces, gardening, density and mixed use of land development by 2020.
While different mixes of big box and local shopping exist–especially in Europe, Latin America and Asia–this “ah ha” moment will continue to impact how developers around the world create a more balanced and sustainable mix of shopping across the megacities.
Transforming big box stores and dated malls will be big business leading up to 2020, and it has the potential to resurrect neighborhoods and improve quality of life in suburbs or parts of cities that may seem like they are in decline today. Mom and pop stores and niche boutiques find resurgence by 2016 in countries like the US where they have been on the decline.
Take a look at this TEDx Atlanta video presentation by Ellen Dunham-Jones (duration 20 minutes) about urbanizing suburbia and recapturing under performing spaces. She delivers some compelling data that supports this transformation.
3. Managing your mobile makes you crazy, then get’s a total rethink by 2015
Mobile device as bracelet by Jung Dae Hoon
While the mobile device will continue to transform our lives in new ways, issues surrounding easy-to-use navigation, privacy and physical and digital security need a lot of work over the next few years. Until then, prepare to sound like your parents, asking your kids, “How do I do that?”
As new technologies and offerings collide on a little “phone” that’s already smarter than most people’s first few computers, you can be sure it will continue to transform the way we shop and share the experience. By 2020, most consumers won’t even recognize mobile devices compared to the smart phone in your hand today.
More displays will be placed around shops and in public places, allowing you to experience more than what will fit in your pocket or purse, and allowing retailers (or other advertisers) to use savvy ads and suggestive prompts to entice you with an offer or introduce you to something new.
Mobile devices embedded in eyewear may display in-context information you want during the day (image source: Frog Design)
You may find yourself wearing glasses again, even with 20/20 vision. Display and visual information capture will be enabled through things like glasses, or eventually contacts, embedded with head’s up display technology, video, tag and other scanning features to capture what you see and show you the information you want versus what advertisers want you to know.
I’ve got an app for that… App integration will happen (may it be a more elegant evolution than forefathers like the Microsoft Office Suite) and a Shopping Suite emerges to enable this experience like never before.
Voice-driven, context-aware devices enable discrete tagging of merchandise for immediate comparison or to add to a list.
Virtual social shopping takes new meaning as your friends follow you digitally through your real world shopping trip, sharing advice and recommendations virtually.
Hide Me or Invisibility becomes an important mobile app, allowing you to cloak your activities when you are not in shopping mode and need a more passive environment.
Samsung and Nokia both have future concept videos in this space. Samsung’s video below (duration 1.50 minutes) presents a vision of how this could evolve.
4. Language barriers fade away
Being a global citizen takes on new meaning with real-time and in-ear translations, this removes any language barrier and making shopping ubiquitous. Whether you are taking an evening stroll in your own city or traveling in Rome, Paris, Tokyo or Shanghai, transactions will be easy no matter what language you read, write or speak.
5. Buy on the fly
Buy on the fly through visual and voice recognition (image source: Frog Design)
As you move through your day, it will be easier to tag items you like and buy them immediately or add them to your shopping list. For example, a purse or pair of shoes on a passerby catches your eye. You say “tag item” as you look at the item and immediately receive confirmation that the item has been identified. Buy it now or add it to a list for later.
6. Discover stores you already adore
Being able to tag items you like will also allow you to find physical stores that carry similar treasures. Finding new stores that you are going to like will be easier than ever. You will be able to see the stores your friends visit and get recommendations based on the types of products you’ve tagged along with preferences to shop on other ratings like sustainability, fair trade and the like.
One current example, is shown in this two minute video of a shopping wayfinding phone app. Things will get more advanced, more intuitive and the user interface will improve, but this technology is already starting to emerge. An example from today’s tech is in the start-up Nuji who wants to start tagging products online. It could be the start of something big if run smart today with a clear vision for the future.
7. Virtual is the next online
X-box and PlayStation are no longer kid’s play; the gaming toolbox has evolved to become your virtual immersion device used for gaming, deep conversations, and business, especially shopping. Companies like 3D Internet will work with retailers to allow shoppers to immerse into a world rich in sound and vision, but also allowing some feedback through other senses like touch and smell.
Shopping and exploring in this virtual reality is a dream for those who have a hard time finding what they want. Instead of just browsing shop after shop not knowing if you will find what you want, your virtual shopping experience will be filled with items you’ve tagged, related suggestions and complimentary colors and styles. Do they have my size? Yes. They are all your size. 70% of clothes will be made to fit your custom size. Imagine walking through a store and every department was stocked with items you liked and always had your size.
Get a clunky taste of virtual shopping from home in this 50 second video. In the future, the big difference is that the store will know your measurements and automatically adjust.
The next two videos (duration almost 3 and 2 minutes respectively) give you a sense of just how different virtual reality, or augmented reality, could become around 2020 – 2025. While they don’t directly cover shopping, both videos give you a glimpse into a very different way to think about the next digital revolution. The second video, in particular, could be something that kids growing up totally digital might start to embrace. Though the technology and digital content needed may only be in early stages by 2020, it offers a “life as game” kind of appeal to virtual/augmented reality.
8. The moment of truth moves from the shelf to the store entrance
More and more emphasis will be placed on first impressions: the moment you enter a shop. It is the moment the retailer has to capture your attention and draw you in. Stores not on the top of your list will have to compete in new ways to gain your attention, and the stores that are on your frequent shopper list will want to retain that place with a passion.
Based on what you share with a store (via mobile device, tagged clothes you have on, etc.), the shop will be able to further tailor offers for you, highlight products related to your tags, or intrigue you with ads that trigger your curiosity. Today, there are pioneering start-ups like Bizzy who have suggestion engines and special offers. But, imagine the millions spent today on advertising for TV and online, also moving into the front of stores in new and engaging ways.
9. The rise of digital displays and personal whispers
Paper and plastic point of sale (POS) signage become quaint and infrequent as digital displays become ubiquitous, covering everything in a thin layer of possibilities. Some shops will use traditional paper as a differentiator, but most will focus on finding even better ways to use cost effective digital displays.
This trend is already being talked about and experimented with under the term “clean store” initiatives by Wal-Mart, Target and other big retailers. But, the larger opportunity is to rethink these touchpoints and not treat them as their old POS predecessors.
Instead of printing a display every month, your feature wall could be a high definition image that changes with the time of day or with the real time make up / insights related to shoppers near your store. Need eyeballs so people notice your store and want to walk in? You could do slow motion video snippets that pique curiosity and feature anything you carry related to a tagged item of window shoppers.
Though displays will be a huge change in the makeup of the shopping experience, other technologies will also play an interesting and evolving role. Imagine getting a whisper that no one else can hear about a new fragrance or some other offer as you enter a shopping area. The use of sound to whisper custom messages, ads and offers, while available today, will be perfected and used more broadly around 2014. Expect to see other technologies that touch your senses including scents, projections, holograms and the like get even bigger around 2016.
Take a look at Microsoft’s future vision video below (duration 2 minutes). While many of the concepts will be able to be produced by 2020, there are some that will most likely not be mainstream until closer to 2025 or 2030. That said, it does start to paint a vision of what could be.
10. Tags threaded into the fabric of life
Items we buy will have an electronic thread IDs woven into them, making it easier for others to tag them for future purchase. Some brands will differentiate by allowing you to remove these product/brand tags. Others will help you use the tags to get loyalty rewards for wearing them around town. The best advertisement is a happy consumer using or wearing your product.
You will be able to either hold your mobile device up towards an item or select it through your eyewear–even an orange at a grocery store–and learn things about it like where it is from or when it was picked. Stores will be self aware due, in part, to these tags and will be able to know when an item needs to be restocked, is out of place, or what aisle and digital shelf strip needs the price change applied to it.
11. Tech savvy stores and digital merchandising, a must to compete
To enable the future and capture their market share, stores will need to be more tech savvy than ever or will need to work with outside services that fill this gap. The richness of data, if visualized well, will give even small shops unprecedented ability to fine tune their offering to target their core audience. This goldmine of data will be there, but visualizing it will be paramount in order to act upon it.
Retailers will also need their items tagged and programmed to show up in the virtual shopping network along with any digital merchandising that might add to revenue and make even happier customers. From restocking to enabling consumers to find everything on their list, the store of the future needs to be planned for today to enable the technology touchpoints involved in consumer-facing and behind-the-scenes parts of transforming retail.
This shopping video by Microsoft (duration 2.5 minutes) touches on a few of the concepts that will start to transform the in-store shopping experience around 2020 including the use of tags and displays. Things like dynamic shopping lists, store feedback on what aisles you need to hit, restocking notifications, and digital shelf strips that can highlight the item on your list as you approach, are all achievable by 2020 and will likely not be confined to your mobile device as shown in the video.
Instead of just mass retail, digital will continue to benefit unique smaller entrepreneurs as individuality and durable quality goods are increasingly valued. Store windows will also be 24/7 windows into shopping for featured merchandise. This 2 minute video shows some current technology that is being developed for future interactions.
Retailers and brands will have the ability to identify and manage brand conversations happening in real time across a vast number of touchpoints. Those who are best able to understand and connect with their customers will increase sales, reduce product returns, improve customer loyalty and reapply learning from customers to drive improved products and product offerings.
12. Consumer friendly data dashboards
Head's up information displays will become ever more important for consumers, not just businesses (image source: Frog Design)
With all the data and advertising, new businesses will be formed to better consolidate and visualize information for consumers as well as businesses. The shopper will be able to use head’s up displays to pull up a data dashboard and evaluate different products from the #1 combo meal, food and health to 3D displays, electronics and transportation.
Visuals combined with whisper technology will allow you to see or hear any alternate options on an item of interest. Imagine finding the perfect pair of pants and being able to quickly view alternate styles available from colors, fabrics, sizes and the like.
13. Home delivery finally has its heyday
Scheduled delivery (weekly or bi-weekly), finally gains a significant foothold worldwide. With more people than ever in cities, the critical mass, along with the business model, will allow for sound delivery services. In some areas this will still be delivery of staple food items (cereal, rice, soda, milk, etc.), but overall it will mean saving time and allowing shoppers to focus on other things.
While this is already available in some cities and via some retailers, the opportunity by 2020 is to transform this space so it doesn’t matter which retailers you are ordering from. The consumer get’s one regular delivery from a trusted source that can pick up and deliver items from Walgreen’s, Target and Whole Foods.
Some will choose to spend time they would be shopping by self-selecting fresh produce in-person and others will spend it tending their organic gardens or in other social interactions.
For brands and retailers, this means once you make it onto a scheduled delivery routine your retention rate will likely remain high. The trick will be getting your competitors off the list and yourself on it.
For delivery companies, these home delivery specialists may become the preferred route for the last few miles of the FedEx and UPS supply chains. They may also differentiate by getting to know their regular customers and forging relationships within the community, bringing back the human element that has gone missing from this service industry.
14. Second hand, never more sexy
The rise of reuse will continue into the next century as the focus on sustainability and responsible consumption continues. People will increasingly consider the lifetime value of purchases and avoid items that can’t easily be passed on or aren’t durable enough to last a long time.
Everyone knows that second hand saves money, but this shopping trend will move well beyond the wallet and the 60 million in the US that actively shop this space. The key secondhand categories will be clothing, jewelry, books, furniture, kitchenware, musical instruments and appliances.
Businesses focusing on second hand merchandise will be increasingly busy whether that is an ebay, Amazon.com, the local thrift store, yard sale or newcomers targeting shoppers in this space. Companies like CarMax already have years of experience focusing on the secondhand market for vehicles and may offer some tips to start-ups in other categories.
The future is what we make it. What transformations do you expect in shopping by 2020?
Which combination of these 14 impacts your business planning and strategy for the next 10 years?
Are there additional big changes in shopping you see coming by 2020?
As a business professional or a consumer, do you have additional thoughts, details or supporting links to contribute?
Need to understand immediate changes in shopping today? Check out the companion article.
